Tale of the tape: Buffalo and Miami (OH) meet at 3-1 in the MAC with second place on the line

Buffalo visits Miami (OH) tonight at Yager Stadium in Oxford with both teams at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in the Mid-American Conference. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET on ESPN, the second half of the first Tuesday MACtion doubleheader of the season.

Ohio is the only MAC team without a conference loss at 4-0, and it plays at Akron at 7 p.m. on ESPN2. Behind the Bobcats sit four one-loss teams: Western Michigan at 4-1, then Buffalo, Toledo and Miami at 3-1, per ESPN's standings. Buffalo and Miami are the only 3-1 teams playing this week, so the loser drops to two conference losses in the race for the second spot in the title game. The winner also gets to six wins and bowl eligibility.

Tale of the tape

1. Burch against the best run defense in the MAC. Buffalo running back Messiah Burch has 845 rushing yards and five touchdowns, and he has topped 100 yards in five straight games, including a career-high 184 against Bowling Green. Miami allows fewer than 100 rushing yards a game, which ranks in the top 15 in FBS. Over its last four games the RedHawks held Bowling Green, UMass, Akron and Central Michigan to 272 rushing yards on 109 carries.
2. A Buffalo offense that runs because it has to. The Bulls average 176 rushing yards a game and 155 passing yards, 130th in FBS. Sophomore quarterback Jason Wright, in his first season as the starter, has completed 49.7% of his passes for 987 yards with seven touchdowns and four interceptions.
3. Miami's third quarterback. Thomas Gotkowski was lost for the season in fall camp and David McComb went down for the year in the Sept. 26 win over UConn. Fort Hays State transfer Caleb Heavner has taken over and Miami is 3-1 in his starts. He threw for a career-high 221 yards against Central Michigan, but also two interceptions.
4. Miami's weak spot. The RedHawks give up 269.9 passing yards a game, 132nd in FBS, and opponents have scored on 95.2% of red zone trips, which ranks 129th.
5. Turnovers. Buffalo forced two turnovers in its first five games and seven in the last three.
6. Close games. Five of Miami's last six games came down to the final possession, per the Journal-News. The latest was a 28-27 win at Central Michigan, sealed by D'Shawntae Jones' touchdown run with 1:41 left.
7. History. Miami leads the series 18-9 and won 37-20 at Buffalo last season. The RedHawks have won the last two meetings.

Venue spotlight: Yager Stadium

Buffalo has a long way to go to win in Oxford. Miami is 11-3 against the Bulls at Yager Stadium and hasn't lost to them at home since Oct. 29, 2015, per Miami's game notes. Buffalo's own notes put its record there at 3-11, with the other wins coming in 2009 and 2013.

Miami will also wear special helmets and jerseys tonight with the Myaamia Heritage Logo. The design came out in 2017 to represent the university's relationship of more than 50 years with the Miami Tribe of Oklahoma.

Why it matters

Miami has played in three straight MAC championship games under Chuck Martin and was 2-3 a month ago. Buffalo coach Pete Lembo, in his third season, is going for a fourth straight win, which would also be his 20th with the Bulls. Miami's run defense against Burch should decide it. If Buffalo can't run, Wright has to win the game through the air, and his passing numbers so far say that's a lot to ask.