Forget Caleb's four picks. The Bears' division record is the real problem

Everybody spent Monday morning counting Caleb Williams' interceptions. Wrong number. The one that should keep Bears fans up this week is 10, which is how many points Chicago has scored in two games against its own division.

Sunday night was ugly, and I won't pretend it wasn't. Williams went 22 of 37 for 279 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions, the first four-pick game of his career, and the Bears gave it away five times at home to a Tampa Bay team that showed up 3-5. They won 27-24 anyway. Jaylon Johnson took a Baker Mayfield throw back 67 yards for a touchdown, Williams hit Colston Loveland for 38 yards late, and Cairo Santos made a 38-yarder as time ran out.

I don't hand out style points. I never have. You turn it over five times and still win, that tells me something good about the rest of your roster, and it goes in the standings the same as a blowout. So no, I'm not here to tell you the picks make Chicago a fraud. The Bears are 7-2, and they earned all seven.

What I want to know is who they earned them against. The Bears beat Carolina, Philadelphia, the Jets, Atlanta, New England, Seattle and Tampa Bay. The two losses are Minnesota, 9-3 at Soldier Field in September, and Green Bay, 31-7 at Lambeau in October. That's the whole NFC North sample so far, and the offense scored one touchdown in it.

Here's the best argument against me, and it's a real one. Two games is a tiny sample, one of them came back in September, and the offense has looked like a different unit lately. Since the Green Bay loss, Chicago has put up 31 at Atlanta, 30 against New England, 34 at Seattle and 27 on Sunday. Luther Burden III and Rome Odunze both caught touchdown passes in the first quarter Sunday. I've spent all fall saying October means nothing, so I can't turn around and treat one ugly October day in Green Bay like a verdict.

Fine. But look at what's coming. ESPN's standings have Minnesota at 6-1, Chicago at 7-2, Detroit at 6-2 and Green Bay at 6-3. That's a 7-2 team sitting second in its own division, and all four of their remaining division games come after this week's bye: at Detroit on Thanksgiving, Green Bay on Christmas, then Detroit and at Minnesota to close the season. Burden is in the concussion protocol, per coach Ben Johnson, and the bye at least buys time before the Saints come to town Nov. 22.

Four interceptions against a 3-6 team is a bad night. Four interceptions in Detroit is a lost game, maybe a lost division. The Bears can survive their quarterback's worst night against the teams they've been beating. They haven't shown me they can survive an average one against the teams they have to beat.

So here's the deal I'll make with Chicago. I'll stop bringing up Sunday's picks the minute they win a division game. They get their first shot on Thanksgiving. If they win in Detroit, I'll write the apology myself.

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