Can Texas beat Ole Miss by four? Chuck says No

Texas has lost its past two games by a combined six points. Against Ole Miss on Saturday, the Longhorns face a four-point test on Beat Chuck: “Will Texas Longhorns beat Ole Miss Rebels by at least 4 points?” Chuck has picked No.

A Texas win by one, two or three points would make his answer correct, as would an Ole Miss victory. A Texas win by exactly four counts as Yes.

Texas's trouble sustaining drives gives Chuck a case. Ole Miss's October 19 scouting report puts the Longhorns' three-and-out rate at 34.3 percent, worst in the SEC. An offense that keeps handing the ball back can struggle to build a lead, even when its defense keeps the game within reach.

That defense is the reason to hesitate before siding with Chuck. The same report lists Texas 12th nationally on defense. Holding Ole Miss down would give the Longhorns room to win despite another uneven offensive night.

Texas will have to do that without edge rusher Colin Simmons. Wescott Eberts reported that Simmons was ruled out on Thursday's availability report after suffering a high ankle sprain against Florida. The SEC report also lists him as out. His absence adds a concern to the defensive case for a Texas win.

Ole Miss coach Pete Golding also sees more in Texas than its recent losses. In the Rebels' October 21 practice report, he pointed to the Longhorns' win over Ohio State and stressed stopping their run on early downs. He also called for clear communication against Texas's shifts and motion. If Texas can avoid obvious passing downs, Golding expects difficult matchups for his defense.

The game kicks off October 24 at 6:30 p.m. Central, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, on ABC at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, according to the Texas game center.

Make your call

The four-point question is one of ten team and player-performance predictions in the college night challenge. Beat Chuck is free to play: compete against our host, or play with friends in private challenges.

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